CLIMATE EMERGENCY 2022
Globaly :-
Globaly :-
Why?
The Industrial Revolution started about 250 years ago following the discovery and increasing availability of fossil fuels. That, together with the availability of other metals and minerals in the earth’s crust, enabled considerable improvement in technology and standard of living. Accordingly, since that time, the population has increased from just over 1 billion to 8 billion and is still rising. This resulted in an increase in demand for the new consumer goods and for food, both requiring more and more intensive production methods. And to achieve that we humans have not hesitated to interfere with nature to extract what was needed.
In particular the extraction of fossil fuels has had an effect not anticipated 250 years ago. Due to the fact that we burn them to achieve all this improvement we are emitting billions of tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere and causing the average global temperature to rise.
CO2 occurs naturally in the atmosphere and helps to maintain a stable climate - and has done this very successfully for 800,000 years or more. But our CO2 emissions have added considerably to the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere - and they have done so at such a rate that nature’s compensating action cannot keep up. As a result the average global temperature, which was already at the top end of the naturally controlled range, gradually started to rise, and more recently has done so at a much higher rate.
To put numbers on it, since the start of the Industrial Revolution the average global temperature has risen by 1.2°C and is still rising. And well established science has determined that, to avoid the most serious effects of the resultant climate change, the temperature rise must not exceed 1.5°C - or 2°C at the very most. And for that to happen our global CO2 emissions if at all possible have to be reduced to net zero by the year 2050.
Now this is where we are in serious trouble. We may not have had the exact numbers at the time but 30-40 years ago we very much knew this to be the case and since that time much effort has gone into reducing our emissions. But in spite of that our emissions have continued to increase because of population increase leading to increased consumer demand. Additionally some countries sitting on vast reserves of coal, oil or gas, or whose economies rely heavily on the burning of fossil fuels, are reluctant to take the necessary action. And last year (2021) global man made CO2 emissions were the highest ever.
But had we made serious efforts 30 – 40 years ago to reduce our emissions we probably would have stood a good chance of achieving net zero by 2050. So now, with less than 30 years to go; our emissions still rising; a much higher level of CO2 in the atmosphere; and with the world behaving the way it is at present, the chance of achieving net zero by 2050 must be zero.
That in itself is worrying because we are already experiencing the damaging effects of man made climate change and if we delay taking robust positive action any longer, then science is predicting we are on course to an average global temperature rise of 3°C or more – which would bring into question the future habitability of the planet as dangerous feed back loops kick in.
So, bearing in mind the momentum in the driving force behind the excessively high level of CO2 in the atmosphere today (CO2 can stay in the atmosphere for up to 100 years or more before it is dissipated) even if we do succeed in a massive reduction in our emissions by 2050 it looks certain we will have to give nature a helping hand using carbon capture techniques to bring the concentration in the atmosphere down to a safe level. Restoring native forests, although essential for keeping global warming within natural limits, will not now be timely enough. Fortunately the technology to achieve atmospheric carbon capture is developing but we need to be very careful going down that road because, yet again, we will be interfering with nature. And at present we do not know if it is achievable on the scale required. So there can be no buck passing or pussyfooting around on emission reduction. Fossil fuels are going to have to remain in the ground. And we must avoid burning anything else that adds carbon to the atmosphere unless we capture the carbon at source and bury it.
And if that’s not enough we also have to worry about a second of the 3 main greenhouse gases – methane. It is emitted into the atmosphere naturally by healthy wetlands but human activity sources include leakage from oil and gas production and intensive beef and dairy production. Cutting out the burning of fossil fuels will deal with the former but our emission reduction efforts must also include the latter. However, the most serious concern about methane is the release of vast quantities of it trapped in ice crystals in the surface of the earth’s crust. Already permafrost is melting as temperatures rise but if the ocean temperature rises enough there is a real danger of a massive release of methane from continental shelves resulting in a very dangerous feed-back loop. And in the Arctic, where the temperature is rising more rapidly than elsewhere, there is already localised evidence of rising methane bubbles. When scientists use the term “thermal runaway” they are not using it lightly.
Likewise, the science is serious about the 1.5-2°C threshold; about net zero and negative greenhouse gas emissions; and about the 2050 target date.
(What follows is not about the science but is speculation about human activity)
The first thing we have to do is stop fighting each other.
To do that we need a depoliticised and fully effective “United” Nations.
To achieve that we all as individuals have to set our minds to the science and the dire straits we are in and vote only for politicians who are of the same mind. So all our world leaders need to get their act together. We may then achieve a genuinely united world genuinely taking robust action on climate change.
And such action could include most if not all of the following elements.
The list must be endless and we perhaps need an expertly written “handbook” that provides guidance on how to live a sustainable low to zero carbon lifestyle so we can adapt according to our own individual circumstances.
Of course, we must also put living peacefully and helping each other before self or vested interest – but we do not need a handbook for that.
We don’t have to start from scratch
We already have the way – all we need is the will
It can be done - and, in the process, world peace achieved.
Epilogue
The above deals with a positive way forward. It could be written an entirely different way probably ending at a 6th mass extinction of species.
Which way we take, of course, is entirely up to us.
At 84 years old I will not live to see how close we get to the 2050 target. But if I were to return in the next century I would not expect to find myself on a planet where the average global temperature has risen by more than 2°C and where methane is bubbling up from continental shelves.
Michael Leighton
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